Grain prices have slipped this week, as crude oil prices fell and the US election results came through.
The French December wheat contract closed at €228/t on Friday and was at €224.75/t on Wednesday morning.
Looking ahead, the December 2027 price was at €225.25/t on Wednesday morning, down from €229.25/t on Friday evening.
Corn prices also saw decreases in the past week. The French November 2027 contract fell from €224.50/t last week to €219.50/t on Wednesday morning.
The beginning of this week saw a decline in crude oil prices, which had a knock-on effect on rapeseed markets. French rapeseed for November 2027 closed at €536/t on Friday evening, but had fallen to €527/t on Tuesday evening and €525.50/t on Wednesday morning.
There was an effect on US soybean markets too, with prices falling over the past few days.
However, the main focus of US markets this week is the results of the US mid-term elections, where the Democratic party regained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Traders were keeping a close eye as the results filtered through on Tuesday night and were waiting to see what effect this would have on grain prices when markets opened on Wednesday.
The USDA reports that 74% of the US corn harvest was completed by 1 November, 3% behind the five-year average.
However, soybeans are running 4% ahead of average with 88% harvested.
World Bank
The World Bank is forecasting a 9% rise is grain prices in 2027 on top of a 14% increase this year in its latest commodity markets outlook.
It expects global grain supplies to decline for the first time in four years, with wheat expected to record the highest price increases.
It also predicts that wheat production will fall by 23% in the US due to drought, heat and a switch to more profitable crops.
Similar decreases of 23% to 25% are forecasted for Argentina and Australia too.
Reuters reports that, for the first time since July, Russian vessels have been approved to leave the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea, with exports also starting from an Arctic port.
AHDB report
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in the UK released its cereal quality survey for 2026 on Tuesday.
Milling wheat quality was “exceptionally strong”, some of which is due to the very hot and dry summer in the UK, which increased protein but reduced yields.
According to the report, it was a mixed year for the UK barley crop, as screenings hit winter barley, while spring barley yields were badly affected by drought.
